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Are bookies better at predicting elections than the national polls? That question has yes and no answers, and to our knowledge has never been determined by a recognized and scientifically controlled study. What you are doing is taking a high-house-edge bet on the hard 4 or 10 (the hard 4 and 10 carry a casino advantage of 11.4%, lower by laying odds) of higher quality....

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Are bookies better at predicting elections than the national polls? That question has yes and no answers, and to our knowledge has never been determined by a recognized and scientifically controlled study. “Do you want a priest?” he was asked, during an interval of consciousness. New Hampshire voters will choose between two Democrats and a field of Republican candidates....

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“I want to hedge my bets. As of this morning Clinton is even to take the presidency and Rubio is -150 to Trump’s +160. But if you followed trusted lines rather than most of the polls in the 2012 presidential race you knew the results well ahead of November 4th – much to the chagrin of the losing side....

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There is also enough variance in the early field that you could treat the primaries like propositions and hedge your bets once the momentum has gelled later in the primaries.If history is any indicator, Bovada appears to be the crystal ball for November. Here you have the Independent voter who can vote as a Republican or Democrat and that adds some chaos to a mix that already holds the free radical game changing Donald Trump....

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Hedge betting by using one wager to offset the “negative probabilities” of another wager is just not smart betting on a crap game. It’s a gambler’s dream come true with plenty of opportunities. The logic here is analogous to diversifying your investment portfolio by buying bonds to “protect” against losses that you might experience in the stock market....